"In 2017, China's auto production and sales are close to 30 million, although 2018 has entered a downward cycle, but under the new development pattern of the '14th Five-Year Plan', the peak of China's auto will reach 50 to 60 million in the next 10 to 15 years."
Recently, at the "China Automobile New Consumption Forum" hosted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and hosted by the Auto Home, Wang Xiaoguang, deputy director, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Economics Department of the Central Party School (National Academy of Governance), made the above judgment.
China's auto challenge?
Since the beginning of this year, the development momentum of Chinese brand cars has been good, and the market share has increased significantly, but in Wang Xiaoguang's view, the gap between Chinese brands and multinational auto giants is still very obvious.
he key core technology bottleneck of Chinese automobile needs to be broken. Wang Xiaoguang believes: "In the automotive industry, I don't think it is completely the world of new energy vehicles." The key core technology of China's automobile needs to be tackled, whether it is traditional energy vehicles, hybrid power, or new energy vehicles, it needs to make breakthroughs in core technology, which is closely linked to the strategy of manufacturing power and quality power. A large part of Made in China 2025 requires the auto industry to reach the same status as European, American and Japanese cars, and we still have a long way to go."
There is a huge gap between Chinese cars and internationally renowned brands in terms of brand. Wang Xiaoguang put forward: "At present, China's high-end automobile brands rely heavily on foreign investment, this problem is more prominent. The focus of the automotive industry should be to improve the capacity and level of the industrial chain and supply chain, not only to extend the industrial chain and supply chain, but also to ensure the independence of the industrial chain and supply chain, and more importantly, to create well-known brands and enhance the added value of high-end products. We say that science and technology should be self-reliant and self-reliant, and the requirements for modern manufacturing are independent, controllable, safe and efficient, which is a matter of principle."
Why is there no global brand in Chinese cars? In Wang Xiaoguang's view, this is a problem with the joint venture cooperation model. He believes: "The mode of joint venture cooperation between some Chinese automobile groups and foreign brands has led to a decline in the innovation ability of enterprises, and some state-owned enterprises have no motivation in core technology innovation." On the surface, China's car market is highly competitive, and consumers have many brands to choose from. In fact, it shows the characteristics of monopoly, that is, foreign brands and some central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have formed a collusive monopoly, which has a huge negative impact on China's automobile innovation. In 2022, China will loosen access restrictions on the auto industry and the auto industry will enter the stage of full competition, which will be a huge opportunity for Chinese auto brands to seek breakthroughs."
The Chinese market has broad prospects
王Although Wang Xiaoguang bluntly pointed out the huge gap between Chinese brands and foreign brands, in his view, innovative and aggressive local car companies are expected to seize the opportunity to narrow the gap. And that opportunity lies in the fact that the Chinese auto market still has huge room for growth.
China's auto production and sales are expected to cross the 50 million threshold. Wang Xiaoguang analyzed: "15 years ago in 2006, I predicted that China's automobile production and sales would reach 10 million units around 2010, and 30 million units around 2018 to 2019. The reality is that in 2009, China's auto production and sales exceeded 10 million, and in 2017, China's auto production and sales reached 29 million, which is only one step away from 30 million. Although the threshold of 30 million vehicles has not been crossed for the time being due to the COVID-19 pandemic and China's economic adjustment, I am very optimistic about the future demand of the car market, and the highest peak of Chinese cars is 50 to 60 million units."
The growing middle-income group is the main driving force for the continued growth of Chinese automobiles. Wang Xiaoguang believes: "In the future, China's middle-income group is expected to grow from 400 million people to 800 million people, and all families will popularize cars, which is a law and an unchangeable trend." Therefore, the growth of the car is driven by the increasing proportion of the middle class. With the continuous development of China's economy and the continuous growth of GDP, and the growth of automobile consumption has always been higher than the GDP growth rate of 3 to 5 percentage points, the next 10 to 15 years is a good time for the automobile industry, and the momentum of automobile consumption will continue to release, promoting the automobile production and sales to reach the peak."
During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China entered a new stage of development
In recent years, China's auto production and sales have entered a downward cycle, and few people in the auto industry publicly forecast auto production and sales, why Wang Xiaoguang can give such an optimistic judgment? The reason is that he has a deep understanding of China's development strategy compared with those in the auto industry.
Building a new development pattern is the national strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and how to understand the "new development pattern"?
Wang Xiaoguang said: "From the 100-year history of the Communist Party of China, it has gone through four strategic stages. In the second stage, heavy industry was the priority strategy from the founding of the People's Republic to the reform and opening up. "Two bombs and one star" are all important achievements of this strategy, and the current security system and national independence depend on it. The third stage is the international circular strategy since the reform and opening up. This strategy has activated China's economy, in particular, it has transferred a large number of our surplus labor force from rural areas to cities, from agriculture to industry, and achieved industrialization and urbanization. The effect of this strategy, in fact, is to get rich. The fourth stage is the strategy for building a new development pattern, as proposed in the 14th Five-Year Plan."
What are the specific tasks for the new development pattern of the 14th Five-Year Plan? Wang Xiaoguang analysis said: "The first is to form a strong, high-quality supply capacity, to achieve scientific and technological self-reliance and industrial modernization, can be summarized as a scientific and technological power and manufacturing power." We compete with the United States and other developed countries on the basis of scientific and technological capabilities and manufacturing capabilities. Therefore, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, major breakthroughs must be made in these two aspects. Second, we need to foster a strong domestic demand system. In the future, China's economy will mainly rely on domestic circulation, the core of which is domestic demand, and the focus of domestic demand is consumer demand. We will release domestic demand by raising incomes, make domestic demand more balanced, and then upgrade the structure of domestic demand so that its growth potential can be fully brought into play. Third, we need to address the problem of unbalanced and inadequate economic development. This includes five aspects: rural, regional, ecological, people's livelihood and national security..."
For the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy, Wang Xiaoguang explained very thoroughly: on the one hand, to rely on scientific and technological innovation to enhance the supply capacity; On the other hand, raise income, expand the scale of middle-income groups, and promote consumption. Both the supply side and the demand side work together, which is not only the basis for establishing a good domestic cycle, but also an important premise for China's automobile production and sales to break through 30 million, 40 million, or even 50 million in the future, and excellent Chinese brands need to seize this opportunity, continue to grow bigger and stronger, and narrow the gap with multinational auto giants.
2021-9-9
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